Syaharuddin, Habib Ratii Penvira Negara, Malik Ibrahim, Ahmad, Muhammad Zulfikri, Gilang Primajati, Via Yustitia, Suvriadi Panggabean, Rina Rohayu, Nurjannah Septyanuri
Forecasting is a process or method used to predict future uncertainty as an effort to make better decisions. The purpose of this research is to compare the proximity level of the quantitative measurement to the acnial value (accuracy) between the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) method and the Brown method by modifying the alpha value between 0 and 1. The data used is the daily data dissemination of COVID-19 in NTB Province, winch starts from 11 March-14 July 2020. Based on data simulation results with alpha value modification obtained information that the Brown method is more accurate than the EMA method. The alpha value with the least error in the Brown method amounted to 0.7 with the MAPE of 4.34%. Therefore, doing forecasting by using Brown should take the results of the smallest simulation value of the value of MAD. MAPE. or M$E because the smaller the value will be the better quality of objects. © 2021 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.
Mathematics Education, Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram, 83115, Indonesia; Computer Science, Universitas Bumigora Mataram, 83127, Indonesia; Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Ntb, 83125, Indonesia; Universitas Pgri Adi Bnana Surabaya, 60234, Indonesia; Universitas Muhammadiyah Sumatera Utara, 20238, Indonesia; Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram, 83115, Indonesia
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